2017 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference First Round Predictions

It’s finally mid-April! What does that mean? NBA playoffs! Easily one of my favorite times on the sports calendar, if not my absolute favorite.

Here is my basic breakdown and predictions of how I believe the first round in the Western Conference is going to go down.

(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Portland Trail Blazers

This match up is a rematch of last years Western Conference Semi-Finals. Golden State won that series 4-1 against a surging 5th seed Portland Trail Blazers (off an impressive 4-2 series win against the once again underwhelming Los Angeles Clippers) without 2016 MVP Stephen Curry for most of the series due to injury.

Things have changed for both teams since then. Most notably the arrival of Kevin Durant to Golden State, joining forces with the Splash Bros and night club bouncer Draymond Green. On the other hand, for Portland, the beautifully executed trade made by General Manager, Neil Olshey, to acquire high IQ skilled big-man, Jusuf Nurkic, from Denver has been beneficial to them. Before the trade, they were in danger of missing the playoffs. Nurkic’s superb play and serious effort for his new team has propelled them into the 8th seed  over the Anthony Davis–DeMarcus Cousins lead New Orleans Pelicans.

Golden State’s kryptonite last year was:

1. a point guard who puts a lot of pressure on Curry defensively; really pushing him on the defensive end of the court affecting his offensive efficiency especially from three point range late in games where he did not quite have his legs under him.

2. While Curry is struggling the other team being able to contain Klay Thompson to some degree. That was really the only way you could beat last years Golden State team.

Now with the addition of Kevin Durant, that is no longer an issue. Even if Curry is getting torched on the defensive end by Damian Lillard and is not hitting the shots he usually does, Durant will. If Durant is not hitting shots, getting to the free-throw line… Thompson will.

There is no scenario in my mind where all three of these guys just are not hitting enough shots to win the game on the same night. As long as Draymond Green does not get suspended again for kicking dudes in the junk, and the other team does not have LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love, I find them incredibly hard to beat four times in a week and a half. Not just in this series but throughout the entire Western Conference.

Series Prediction: Warriors in 4

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Memphis Grizzlies

This is exactly the exact same first round series match up between the 2 and 7 seed in the Western Conference as last year. Outside of Tim Duncan retiring, not much has changed between both sides.

1. The Spurs have replaced Duncan’s production with Pau Gasol. Duncan was well past him prime, or anything near it, where he could actually have a significant impact throughout an entire series. He was a serious liability on the defensive end last year. It’s more the name than anything else at this point last season.

2. The second biggest being the head coaching change for the Grizzlies from Dave Joerger (who was unemployed for about an hour before getting hired by the Sacramento Kings) to David Fizdale.

The Spurs are much deeper than most think. Besides the obvious coaching advantaged with Greg Popavich, they have valuable guys off the bench like Jonathan Simmons, Patty Mills, and David Lee who can definitely have a positive impact on a series against a team like Memphis. And every now and then when Manu Ginobili jumps into a time machine before the game and gets hot they are tough to beat. Not to mention one of my favorite players in the league, San Diego State’s own, future NBA MVP, Kawhi Leonard.

Memphis, though, is a worthy adversary but the way their roster is built they will not be able to score enough points to compete with the Spurs in this series. The Grizzlies average 100.6 points per game while allowing 100.0 per game during the regular season. The Grizzlies win gritty games with great front court play lead by Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. They “ugly up” games by getting to the free throw line and run opponents off the three point line. Their guard play isn’t good enough to hang offensively with the Spurs and their back court depth even if Tony Parker is not what he once was. Aside from Tony Allen and Mike Conley doing their thing on defense, they would have to really step it up offensively. I don’t see that happening.

Series Prediction: Spurs in 5

(3) Houston Rockets vs (6) Oklahoma City Thunder

Easily the most fun first round series this year. The battle  between former teammates now competing for the NBA MVP award (Don’t get me started on it).

These teams are both incredibly similar and incredibly different- let me explain.

I find these teams to be pretty even talent wise if you were to stack up both rosters. Both teams made good mid-season acquisitions. Rockets acquired prolific scorer, former Sixth Man of the Year award winner Lou Williams from the Los Angeles Lakers, while the Thunder acquired tough guy Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott from the Chicago Bulls.

The big difference is the math and playing style of their star player. While the Russell Westbrook-lead Thunder are averaging 8.4 3-pointers made per game on 25.8 attempts, the James Harden–lead Rockets are averaging close to double with 14.3 three pointers made per game on a ridiculous 40.1 attempts, something only a team coached by Mike D’ Antoni and a roster constructed by General Manager Daryl Morey can make possible. So, basically, for every other 2-point basket the Thunder score, the Rockets are scoring three. The trick for the Thunder is to get the Rockets off their game from the 3-point line and Westbrook do his thing.

I give the Rockets a slight edge over the Thunder. Yes, because of the math but also because, like I had mentioned, the playing style of their star player James Harden. He has a unique ability to score pretty much whenever he wants while also making the players around him better, something I do not believe Russell Westbrook does. Westbrook makes the Thunder better as a team with his mere presence on the court but he does not necessarily elevate the individuals around him very much, and it’s going to cost him. It was fun to watch him go absolutely insane on the entire league but his magical run ends here against the Rockets. Also, do not be surprised if after the last game of this series his face falls off and we all find out he is a robot. The way he played, with so much intensity every single game throughout the entire season, was just not human.

Series Prediction: Rockets in 6

(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs (5) Utah Jazz

The Los Angeles Clippers expectations have been sky high, maybe higher, since the hiring of Doc Rivers. I’m talking championship appearances high (yeah, plural). The results on the other hand have been mediocre, at best.

Since the arrival of Doc Rivers and Chris Paul, the Los Angeles Clippers are 15-18 in the playoffs going into this postseason. They have failed to reach the Western Conference Finals and, to be honest, it doesn’t look like they will get there anytime soon. It is like that classic scene in movies we have all seen where the barricade wall is dramatically closing as the protagonist is running to try to make it before it closes. They usually make it, right? If not, they find another way out! If that character were the Clippers, they would crash into the wall and be stuck as a viable playoff team winning one, maybe two, series. The Western Conference has a few young emerging teams that will be playoff contenders soon and this Clippers roster is not by any means getting any younger. Barring injury, I don’t see them getting far.

This year the Clippers face off against a very hungry Utah Jazz franchise who have finally gotten over the hump with this team and made the playoffs for the first time since the 2011-2012 season.

This Jazz team has been quietly very solid the entire season. They struck defensive rim protector gold when drafting Frenchman Rudy Gobert in 2013. All the while, their best player for the last few years, Gordon Hayward, has taken a major step forward. They have made good free agent acquisitions most notably acquiring George Hill from the Indiana Pacers and have done a good job in the draft.

Big ups to Utah’s General Manager Dennis Lindsey. The Utah Jazz match-up pretty well against the Clippers but will not be able to beat them in this series. Hayward averaged 15.7 points in his three meetings against the Clippers this season, which will not be close to enough. The Clippers do a good job containing him offensively and Utah does not have a second option outside of Hayward. Utah’s top three scorers average lower against the Clippers than their regular season averages. The Clippers are the better team with proven success over their first round opponents.

Series Prediction: Clippers in 5